The Theory of the Oscars

It’s the most wonderful weekend of the year: the weekend of the 87th Academy Awards, where Hollywood gets together and gives each other meaningless statues in order to justify their existence.

Starting four years ago, to honor this sentimental time, Mark Brandau and I began to compete over who could best predict the Academy Award winners. For this year’s, 4th Annual Oscar Competition, I have detailed my predictions for the winner in each category along with my reasoning. These predictions are based on the precursor awards – the guilds that correspond with each respective category (such as Writers Guild of America Awards for the screenplay Oscars), the BAFTAS, and the Golden Globes – Las Vegas betting odds, trusted film websites, and the overall trend of winners in each category since their respective creations. I shall note ahead of time that these are not based on personal preference, for I’ve only seen two of the films nominated in this year’s Academy Awards – Interstellar and The Imitation Game. Like the stock market, predicting the Oscars must be void of personal sentiment.

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the winners:

Best Picture: Boyhood. If not that, then Birdman.

The battle for the Academy Award for Best Picture is often fought between two of the many nominees, such as The King’s Speech and The Social Network in 2010, The Artist and Hugo in 2011, and 12 Years a Slave and Gravity in 2014. For 2015, the battle is between Birdman, the single-shot film with the most overall nominations at the Oscars this year and the most guild awards to its name (including the Producers Guild of America Award, which directly corresponds to this category), and Boyhood, the cinematic bildungsroman that was shot over a decade with the same actors and has won the top honors at the general award shows. Glancing at these precursors and the circumstances surrounding these two films, Birdman would be my prediction for Best Picture. Despite this, there is one essential ingredient missing from Birdman that Boyhood has, which throws my prediction to the latter movie.

First, and most importantly, Birdman does not have a nomination for the Best Film Editing category. Yes, I do recognize the fact that the film was shot to give the illusion of no edits. However, I also recognize that every Best Picture winner from Chariots of Fire in 1981 onwards has had a nomination for Best Film Editing. This is the most established Best Picture trend at the Oscars, and although many modern contenders for Best Picture have won many top awards or received massive amounts of nominations, like Brokeback Mountain in 2005 and True Grit in 2010, they never won Best Picture. Why is this important? I’m glad you asked. Winning Best Picture is to declare a belief to posterity that a film, in one year, was better than all the rest. Like a thesis statement, it needs support in order to hold up, which is why a Best Picture winner requires two other Academy Awards in order to justify winning best picture. Usually, these awards are for one of the writing categories (the story being told), one of the acting categories (the people performing the story), directing (the person deciding how to tell the story effectively), and editing (how the story is put together). All other categories, while I’m sure they are important, are fluff compared to the categories recognizing the fundamental mechanics of any film. To even be a contender for Best Picture, let alone win, a film must at least be acknowledged with a nomination for its writing, directing, and editing to make a case that it is the best film of its respective year. One or two acting nominations and other production related nominations are excellent additional evidence. (Naturally, there have been exceptions to these nominations, but they have been rare enough to consider anomalies.) For Birdman to not get this nomination, even though it did get a nomination from the American Cinema Editor Guild’s respective award show, automatically kills its chances for winning this award. Since Boyhood is the only other frontrunner nominated for Best Film Editing, I think that makes it the most likely winner in this category.

Many films have swept Hollywood’s guild awards, only to be virtually shut out of winning any Academy Awards. Apollo 13 winning both the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Picture and Directors Guild of America Award for Best Director in 1995, only to lose all top awards to Mel Gibson’s Braveheart, comes to mind. My gut instinct is that the same situation will happen to Birdman and that Boyhood will walk away with the top prize. Birdman still has a good shot at winning Best Picture, however. Just not as good as Boyhood’s chances.

Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood. If not him: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman.

For the past two years, the winners Best Picture and Best Director have gone to two different films. Such an occurrence is very interesting considering the trend that the same movie wins Best Picture and Best Director. Although Iñárritu has won the Directors Guild of America Award for Best Director, which is the guild that most often matches its corresponding Oscar category, I belive that Best Picture and Best Director will align again as they often do. Additionally, the Academy tends to honor Directors who had to go to extreme measures in order to make their film. Linklater's committing for twelve years to make his vision a reality will probably win many votes based on that fact alone. For those reasons, I think Linklater will win Best Director although Iñárritu still has a good shot at winning.

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything. If not him: Michael Keaton, Birdman.

While Keaton seems to be a favorite to win this award, Redmayne has received all the precursor awards for this category.

For that reason, I think he is the favorite to win. However, if Birdman begins to sweep the Oscars, Keaton has a good shot of riding that wave to win. Until then, Redmayne is my bet.

Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice. There is no other choice.

The Best Actress category tends to go towards two sorts of actors: the young upcoming star, such as every winner in this category from Helen Hunt in 1997 to Reese Witherspoon in 2005, and the older actor who has yet to receive an award, such as Helen Mirren in 2006 and Meryl Streep in 2011. Moore fits into the latter sort easily since she has been passed over time and time again by the Oscars for critically acclaimed films, which only helps her case. Moreover, she has won every precursor award for this category. For those reasons, I think Moore is a lock in for this category.

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash. There is no other choice.

Simmons has won every precursor award for this category. For that reason, I think Simmons is a lock in this category.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood. There is no other choice.

Arquette has won every precursor award for this category. Plus, she has the advantage of being nominated for a performance in the Best Picture frontrunner. For those reasons, I think Arquette is a lock in this category.

Best Original Screenplay: Birdman. If not that: The Grand Budapest Hotel.

The awards for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay are often a consolation prize given to a film that did not win Best Picture. Due to my prediction that Boyhood will win Best Picture and Best Director, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel are the frontrunners for this category. While The Grand Budapest Hotel has won more precursor awards for its screenplay, Birdman has won more precursor awards for Best Picture and Best Director, which is why I think Birdman has a better shot to win this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash. If not that: The Imitation Game.

In addition to serving as a consolation prize, the awards for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay have a long trend of corresponding with the acting category winners. (For example, Good Will Hunting winning Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay in 1997, and Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire winning Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay). While The Imitation Game has won most of the precursor awards for this category, and, therefore, has a good shot at winning, I think Whiplash will follow the trend of winning an acting and a screenplay award.

Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything. If not that: The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Both The Theory of Everything and The Grand Budapest Hotel have won all of the precursor awards of this category. The latter film does have the advantage of having its composer, Alexandre Desplat, not having won any of his previous nominations, making him “overdue” for winning. However, there appears to be more momentum between The Theory of Everything, which is why I think it has a better shot at winning this category.

Best Original Song: "Glory”, Selma. There is no other choice.

In categories like Best Original Song, the winner of this award usually is the only film nominated for Best Picture from among the category's nominees. Since Selma is the only film in this category with a Best Picture nomination – in fact, that’s its only other nomination – Selma is a lock in this category.

Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash. If not that: Birdman.

Best Sound Mixing is one of the hardest categories to predict this Oscar season since it has multiple plausible winners among its nominees. While Birdman has won the corresponding guild award for this category, Whiplash has won more precursor awards overall. Furthermore, the sound categories typically go to films with a heavy emphasis on music to tell their storyline. (For example, Chicago winning Best Sound Mixing in 2002 and Les Misérables winning in 2012.) For those reasons, I think Whiplash has the best chance of winning this category, although Birdman also has an excellent shot at winning Best Sound Mixing.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper. If not that: Birdman.

The winner for Best Sound Editing is usually the film with the most extensive use of sound effects, which is why action and war films typically win this category. (For example, Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty both tying for the highest number of votes received in 2012.) While Birdman has won the corresponding guild award for this category, American Sniper better fits the trends of this category, which is why I think it will win this category. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Birdman won.

Best Film Editing: Boyhood. If not that: Whiplash.

Both Boyhood and Whiplash have been equally recognized in the precursor awards for this category, making them both the frontrunners for this category. However, with Boyhood being the only frontrunner nominated for Best Picture that is also nominated in this category, as well as having the novelty of compiling nearly a decade’s span of footage into one film, I think Boyhood will probably win this category. Whiplash, though, with its rhythmic editing, makes it a very plausible winner in this category.

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar. There is no other choice.

In categories like Best Visual Effects, the winner of this award usually is the only film nominated for Best Picture from among this year's nominees. However, this year, no film nominated for Best Visual Effects is also nominated for Best Picture, which make predicting this category a bit trickier. Interstellar becomes a lock in this category, I think, because of it having the showiest display of visual effects when compared with its fellow nominees.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel. There is no other choice.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling usually goes to the most prominent and extensive use of makeup among the nominees – unless there is a film nominated in this category that also is a frontrunner in either the Best Picture or an acting category. (For example, The Iron Lady winning Best Makeup and Hairstyling in 2011 over other, showier uses of makeup design, due to the film’s other nomination, and win, for Best Actress.) Since The Grand Budapest Hotel is the only film among the nominees nominated for Best Picture, as well as the winner of all of this category’s precursor awards, I think it is a lock in this category.

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel. If not that: Into the Woods.

Best Costume Design usually goes to the most elaborate use of fabric in period dramas among the nominees – unless there is a film nominated for Best Picture. Since The Grand Budapest Hotel is the only film among the nominees nominated for Best Picture, as well as the winner of all of this category’s precursor awards, I think it is practically a lock in this category. However, the Academy Award for Best Costume Design is known to be given to films that do not fit any particular trends, which is why I think Into the Woods – which arguably has more elaborate costumes than The Grand Budapest Hotel – has a fair chance of winning.

Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel. There is no other choice.

Best Production Design usually goes to the grandest set and prop designs – unless there is a film nominated for Best Picture. Additionally, there is a consistent correlation between the winners of Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. (For example, Alice in Wonderland winning both categories in 2010 and The Great Gatsby winning both categories in 2014.) Since The Grand Budapest Hotel is the only film among the nominees nominated for Best Picture, as well as the winner of all of this category’s precursor awards and the most likely winner of Best Costume Design, I think it is practically a lock in this category.

Best Cinematography: Birdman. There is no other choice.

Best Cinematography usually goes to the showiest display of lighting, composition, camera movement, and color coordinating. In this case, Birdman was made to look as though it was filmed in one continuous shot, which is quite a feat. How could that not make Birdman the lock in this category? (Fun Fact: If Birdman’s Director of Photography, Emmanuel Lubezki wins the Oscar this year, he will be the first person since John Toll to win Best Cinematography in consecutive years. Lubezki won last year for his work in Gravity.)

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida. If not that: Leviathan.

The Foreign Language Film category is always a bit tricky to predict. Leviathan, granted, has won more precursor awards than Ida, but typically a film that has multiple nominations overall wins in this category. Since Ida also has a nomination for Best Cinematography, I think it has a better shot at winning than Leviathan, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Leviathan won.

Best Animated Film: How to Train Your Dragon 2. There is no other choice.

Once The LEGO Movie was snubbed for a nomination in this category, How to Train Your Dragon 2 became the frontrunner. This film has won the most precursor awards (after The LEGO Movie), and the Las Vegas betting odds are in its favor. For those reasons, I think How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a lock in this category.

Best Short Film (Animated): The Bigger Picture. If not that: Feast.

The animated short film category is always difficult to predict because its nominees have no nominations outside of their respective category, relatively little public awareness, and few precursor awards. However, of the few precursor awards for this category, The Bigger Picture has won all of them. However, the Las Vegas betting odds are in the favor of Feast. So, I think The Bigger Picture has the best shot at winning this category, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Feast won.

Best Short Film (Live Action): Boogaloo and Graham. There is no other choice.

The live action short film category is always difficult to predict because its nominees have no nominations outside of their respective category, relatively little public awareness, and few precursor awards. However, of the few precursor awards for this category, Boogaloo and Graham has won all of them. Additionally, the Las Vegas betting odds are in its favor. For those reasons, I think Boogaloo and Graham is a lock in this category.

Best Documentary (Short Subject): Joanna. If not that: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1.

The short subject documentary category is always difficult to predict because, like the Best Short Film (Live Action) Category, its nominees have no nominations outside of their respective category, relatively little public awareness, and no precursor awards. Despite the Las Vegas betting odds being in the favor of Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, the subject of Joanna seems to be more in keeping with the traditional subjects that win this category. For that reason, I think Joanna will most likely win this category, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 won.

Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour. There is no other choice.

Citizenfour has won every precursor award for this category. Plus, who doesn’t love Edward Snowdon? (Actually, don’t answer that question.) For that reason, I think Citizenfour is a lock in this category.

That all being said, I could be wrong in my predictions and reasoning for them. The only way to find out is to watch the Academy Awards on Sunday, February 22nd at 5:30 p.m. on ABC, and see whether these predictions, or your own, come true. Or, you could just go on Wikipedia and compare the winners to my predictions after the event so as not to waste time watching desperate celebrities cheerfully claw for a small statuette. It’s really up to you.

#academyawards #film